A border bridge connecting two medieval fortresses in the Russian-speaking region of Estonia could serve as a flashpoint for World War III, according to Politico.
The city of Narva, situated on the Estonia-Russia border, has become a focal point for efforts to counter what Estonian authorities describe as frequent provocations from Moscow. These include jamming satellite navigation systems, stealing border buoys, spreading propaganda, deploying surveillance drones, and launching hot air balloons marked with the Russian military’s “Z” symbol.
“We are not looking to ignite World War III, but we are constantly facing attempts to provoke a reaction that could have serious consequences,” said Eggert Belitsev, Director General of the Estonian Police and Border Guard.
Approximately a quarter of Estonia’s 1.4 million residents are ethnic Russians. While most hold Estonian citizenship and identify closely with the country, the Kremlin has a long history of exploiting ethnic divisions to justify its role as the “protector” of Russian-speaking populations. Similar strategies have been employed in Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine, the latter being a primary rationale for its ongoing invasion.
Concerns are growing that the Kremlin might replicate these tactics in eastern Estonia, home to a significant ethnic Russian community, potentially provoking a NATO response and risking global conflict. Failure by NATO to act would undermine Article 5, the cornerstone of the alliance’s mutual defense agreement.
“The Collapse of the Free World”
In 2022, shortly after the onset of the war in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin asserted that Narva, historically, belonged to Russia.
Narva, Estonia’s third-largest city, lies closer to St. Petersburg than to the Estonian capital, Tallinn. Of its roughly 56,000 residents, 96% are Russian speakers, and about a third hold Russian passports.
Eggert Belitsev, an ethnic Estonian and security official, referred to the city as “the end of the free world” and voiced concerns about NATO allies’ insufficient preparedness for potential developments in the area.
At present, approximately 900 British troops serve in Estonia as part of a multinational NATO force based at the Tapa base, west of Tallinn. French troops are also present, and the British government has committed to readiness for rapid deployment of the 4th Brigade. While NATO has established battle groups in most of its eastern member states and plans to bolster forces in Latvia and Lithuania, similar reinforcements in Estonia have been delayed due to a lack of British armored brigades.
In the event of a Russian attack, the forces at the Tapa base, combined with Estonia’s 7,700 active troops (expandable to 43,000 in wartime), may not have sufficient firepower to withstand a full-scale offensive.
Facing Russia
For Tallinn, managing its relationship with its large eastern neighbor is crucial. Estonia already allocates 3.4% of its GDP to defense and plans to raise this to 3.7% next year, significantly higher than most major EU countries.
The primary concern is what might happen after the conflict in Ukraine concludes, with fears that Russia could use any lull in fighting to target the vulnerable NATO member.
Estonia is investing 157 million euros to strengthen border security in Narva, including a “drone wall” to block enemy aircraft and the recruitment of 1,000 reservists for support in case of a major crisis.
Despite these efforts, Narva faces significant challenges due to its ethnic makeup and historical connections to Russia. The director of the local museum, Maria Smorzhevskikh-Smirnova, came under fire for an exhibition depicting the destruction of Narva during World War II by Soviet forces, while the local council objected to a banner that read, “Putin is a war criminal.” Narva continues to embody the ongoing tension between East and West, where history and politics deeply influence the daily lives of its residents.
